Blu Ray will succeed, but it will take time.

Simply because while the advances are substantial, it is not immediately perceptible.  DVD is already quite good technology.  I remember it took some years before the DVD became mature enough and low price enough to make an impact on VHS.

On Asia, we actually had a couple of years using VCD ( video CD).  It was understood to be a temporary stop gap technology, but it disappeared when DVD became as cheap and as prevalent as VCDs.

Similarly when Blu-ray is prevalent enough, and companies can produce compatible with backward compatibility, it will succeed.

But the same as WindowsVista, pretty soon, it will be the only technology available, and by default it will succeed, becaus eyou can’t buy anything else.

Believing Blu-ray will succeed doesn’t make sense |- CNET News

According to Niel
sen, Blu-ray’s market share dropped to just 8 percent of the overall market, giving DVDs a whopping 92 percent ownership.

Granted, those figures show only one week’s performance, and Blu-ray may have a huge week soon and capture more of the market, but let’s be honest with ourselves: do we really think that will happen?

According to a study released in August by ABI Research, more than half the people it surveyed had no plans to buy a standalone Blu-ray player in the near future, and 23 percent are considering it, but not until 2009.